Saturday, April 20, 2019

Book summary : On writing well

Why should you read this book ?

Two things happened with the advent of word processors. Good writers became better and bad writers became worse. It became easier to write/rewrite/edit allowing good writers to improve their craft. For bad writers, it became easier to write longer sentences and verbosity crept in, even though their style didnt really improve.
Hopefully, I have caught your attention by the above statement. This post is divided into 4 sections like the  book is :

  • Principles
  • Methods
  • Forms
  • Attitudes
I will cover the key takeaways from each chapter of the section and add some of my interpretations and thoughts.

Princinples

Simplicity

Writer's must constantly ask themselves : what am I trying to say ? A clear sentence is no accident, very few sentences come out right the first time, or even the third time. With each rewrite I try to make what I have written tighter, stronger and more precise, eliminating every element thats not doing useful work. The message has to be crisp and clear. 

Clutter

Most first drafts can be cut by 50% without losing any information or without losing the author's voice. 

Style 

The fundamental rule of style is to be yourself. The writer must relax and be confident. Often the first 3 paragraphs of the first draft can be let go and the author gets comfortable from the 4th paragraph. This also depends on the audience and context. Are you writing for the internal team, external FYI, business analysis, VP presentation, etc. Something that I have seen work for internal team memo's is to come across as we are in this together and we are one team. This is where we were, this is where we are going and this is still day one. You always need to paint a picture and a story. 

Audience

Who am I writing for. The audience is the customer, you have a 30 sec attention span. You have to get them hooked, sell your value proposition. They will read on after that. 

Words

Remember that words are the only tools you got. Choice of words is very important - use them with originality and care. Also remember, somebody out there is listening. So read aloud what you read. 



Monday, April 15, 2019

Uber S1 filing

The IPO season in 2019 is hot. Previously I shared S1 filings of Lyft and Pinterest. Now Uber has filed its S1. You can read it here : Uber S1

From the high level look, Uber is a much bigger business than Lyft has eats and freight. Freight is already bigger than I thought and could be a key differentiator in 1-2 years. I expect it to get to 1 billion revenue run rate in 2019 itself.

Sunday, March 31, 2019

Stanford GSB CEO interviews


  1. Dara Khosrowshahi, Uber
    1. I am short term impatient and long term patient. If there is an idea that takes a week or a month or if something is long term, then come to me. Don't come to me for the in between.
    2. Uber wants to be the amazon of transportation. It wants to provide the platform for all modes of transportation and no one company can provide all the modes. It will interface with multiple players. It also expects part of that to be provided by cities like bus service. 
  2. Ajay Banga, Mastercard CEO
  3. sd

Hottest S1 fillings of 2019


  1. Lyft S1
  2. Pinterest S1
S1 fillings are great read to understand how these companies are doing and to also evaluate your current set of investments based on these learnings. 

References

Top investment reads

Classics

  1. Jeff Bezos's letter to investors
  2. Warren Buffet's letter to investors
  3. Ray Dalio's - how the economic machine works in 30 minutes
  4. Ray Dalio's blog on paradigm shifts - this analyzes historical returns of different asset classes by decade
  5. Ray Dalio's Mechanics of war economy (covers Civil War, World War I, World War II)
  6. Boggle heads philosophy 
  7. The intelligent investor 

Blogs

  1. Morgan Housel's Collaborative Fund Blog
  2. The irrelevant investor
  3. Ofdollarsanddata
  4. a wealth of common sense
  5. Adventures in capitalism - I like this blog because of the very honest perspective and the market bottom timing during the covid crash, specifically this call on March 23. 
  6. Gavin Baker's investing blog - former fidelity PM
  7. Oakmark funds

Investing thesis

Facebook

Asset Relativity (Bay area housing vs Tech stock Index)



Last week a16z released a very interesting article on the correlation between bay area housing prices and high flyers of the last decade, Google and Apple stock prices. The conclusion was pretty clear as Bay area houses have become cheaper compared to not only Google and Apple stock, but also a tech stock index comprised of top tech companies in the bay area. To note, a lot of these companies provide equity based compensation for their employees who are buying houses in the bay area.

This article extends the thesis to QQQ which is the Nasdaq top 100 index.

The top 5 companies in QQQ are MSFT, APPL, GOOGL, AMZN and FB, all of which has atleast one engineering office in the bay area. These also are prime drivers of the thesis "Software eats the world".

Any common man without the ability to pick the winners in the tech index suggested by a16z could simply invest in QQQ index fund and have reaped the same results.

Disclaimer : The content is provided for information purposes only and should not be used as legal, investment or tax advice. The author bears no liability for how this information is used and the outcome thereof.






Memos : Famous critical points in businesses

This post contains a list of critical points that different companies and their CEOs faced in their history :

Microsoft

  1. Roadkill on the information highway by Nathan Myhrvold - this memo aged well and is one of my personal favorites
  2. Bill Gates memo to MSFT employees regarding joining "the internet tidal wave" - Gate's memo to the MSFT exec staff in 1995 asking them to pivot to the internet tidal wave
  3. Warren Buffet and Jeff Raikes email exchange on valuing Microsoft in 1997 - this is a great thread about how Raikes thinks about the MSFT software business as a royalty on every PC sold. Buffet agrees that the business is great but couldn't calibrate the durability of the business over 20 years. I think this also shows buffets thinking and how he made amends with his Apple investment in 2016. 
  4. Windows : the next killer application on the internet - 1994
  5. Ray Ozzie's - The Internet Services disruption memo in 2005 - this is one of my favorites (link)
  6. Ray Ozzie's - Dawn of the new day

Uber 

  1. Travis Kalanick's memo to the UberChina team regarding merger of Uber China and Didi - This is a very inspiring story about how a small team from Uber seeded and started the China venture and eventually earned 20% ownership of Didi Chuxing. Nobody in China had even heard about uber and this was one of the rare victories of a Silicon Valley startup in China except for Apple. Also everyone else (Google, Facebook, etc) is barred from doing business. 
  2. An open letter to Uber employees from Benchmark - I like this letter for several reasons - it is one of the classic case studies of leadership conflict management. As a startup employee this is the last thing you want to see, your investor and CEO having a huge public fight. This is bad for business, bad for PR, bad for value creation. As an investor, this is something you never want to do because all the future CEOs are going to see this play out in public and are going to think twice before securing that investment from you. 
  3. I must fundamentally change and grow up - apology letter from Travis - this is a stark reminder for all leaders about what not to do in business and scaling 
  4. Dara Khosrowsahi's memo to Uber employees in the wake of a disappointing IPO
  5. How to miss by a mile - an alternative look at Uber's potential market size by Bill Gurley

Tesla

  1. Elon Musk's master plan part deux

Facebook

  1. Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg's memo to focus on user's privacy - In the aftermath of the cambridge analytica scandal, this is Mark's memo to refocus the facebook products suits towards privacy and to build with a privacy first mindset
  2. Mark Zuckerberg negotiating with Kevin Systrom over instagram acquisition - Two great product visionaries of our generation discussion what it would mean to work together for their products visions and for themselves
  3. Boz's memo Thoughts for 2020 - he describes 2016 US elections, how the campaigns used digital tools, election interference, facebook's role and the future build up for the 2020 elections 
  4. Boz's blogs on Facebook's culture, business, organization, engineering, product and scaling all these aspects from a startup to a behemoth
  5. Mark Zuckerberg's email describing his vision of AR/VR

Nokia

  1. Carl Icahn's activist letter that led to the eBay-Paypal spinoff - I like this letter as it clearly calls out conflicts of interest between the boards members investments and eBay's direction, Paypal's future and strategy. The spinoff ultimately led to immense value creation and Paypal stock 5xing in the next 5 years. 

Others

Network effects and social networks

In the last post, we studied what network effects are and how it works for Uber. In this post, we will look at another way of thinking about network effects and how it works for social networks.

“Network effects are tricky and hard to describe but fundamentally turn on the following question: Can the marketplace provide a better experience to customer “n+1000” than it did to customer “n” directly as a function of adding 1000 more participants to the market? You can pose this question to either side of the network – demand or supply. If you have something like this in place it is magic, as you will get stronger over time not weaker.” Bill Gurley

How does network effects work for social networks ?
Social networks demonstrate the strongest network effects. If all of your friends are in a social network, you are going to join the same. You will gain value from the presence of the friends and from the connections with them. So the user acquisition cost for the social network goes down, the users who join produce content and value and the supply side dynamics get better and better. As more and more users join the social network, it becomes stronger and stronger as a network compared to other networks. This was one of the fundamental reason why Facebook grew beyond other social networks. Facebook also aligned their growth teams to solve for this problem. They tracked a metric where any new user on Facebook would be connected to 10 of their friends within the first 14 days. Facebook realized if this happened then the probability that the user would churn would go down significantly. 

This phenomenon described above doesn't just hold true for social networks. This also holds for other kinds of networks like phone networks at&t. We will discuss the origin of network effects and the first time it was covered in literature in a future blog post. 



References
1. Network effects and critical mass

Top 5 must read Venture Capital (vc) and tech investing blogs



  1. Andresson Horowitz - a16z
  2. Benedict Evans
  3. My personal favourite is Ben Thompson's stratechery
  4. Paul Graham's essays - co-founder of Y-combinator
  5. Bill Gurley's above the crowd - Bill was the lead analyst in the Amazon IPO and an early investor in Uber through Benchmark capital. 
  6. Adam Hartung's blog
  7. Scott Galloway
  8. Fred Wilson's vc blog
  9. Patrick Collision's blog
  10. Sriram Krishnan's blog
2020 Updates
  1. Union Square Ventures - As we know it that mobile is hitting the top end of the S curve. There are 5.5 billion adults in the US and 4 billion people already have a mobile phone. Like mainframes(IBM), personal computers(Microsoft), web(Google), mobile(Apple) each of the paradigms reach a state of stable growth rather than disruption. We are in a phase where VCs are looking for a new paradigm. I am adding Union Square Ventures to this reading list because they are long crypto and view that crypto could be that new paradigm. 
  2. List of blog posts for entrepreneurship crash course
  3. Alex Danco's blog - ex Social Capital
  4. Steve Sinofsky's blog covering Apple

Books I am reading