Wednesday, April 27, 2022

Microsoft Q3, 2022 Earnings analysis

Summary

  • Revenue : 49.4B up 18%
  • Operating income : 20.4B up 19%
  • Net income : 16.7B up 8%
  • EPS : $2.22 up 9%
  • Microsoft Cloud 23.4B up 32%

Segment Breakdown

Productivity and Business Processes (15.8B up 17%)

  • Office commercial products and cloud services up 12% 
    • Office 365 revenue up 17%
  •  Office consumer products and cloud services up 11% 
  • Linkedin revenue up 34%
  • Dynamic products and cloud services up 22% and Dynamics 365 up 35%

Intelligent Cloud (19.1B up 26%)

  • Server products up 29%
  • Azure up 46%

Personal Computing (14.5B up 11%)

  • Windows OEM revenue increased 11%
  • Windows commercial products and cloud services up 14%
  • XBOX content and services revenue increased 4%
  • Search advertising revenue up 23%
  • Surface revenue increased 13%

Subscriptions

  • Microsoft consumers subscribers up 58.4MN
  • Paid office commercial seats grew 16% to 345M
  • Developer SAAS
    • Visual studio has more than 31M active users
    • 90% of fortune 100 use github
  • Azure Cloud
    • Microsoft is the market leader for all SAP applications in the cloud
    • The number of 100M+ azure deals more than doubled YoY
    • Cosmos DB transactions and data volume grew 100% YoY for the third year in a row
    • Synapse data volume more than doubled year over year
    • Azure ML inference requests grew 86% YoY
  • Power platform 
    • 2BN in revenue in the past 12 months up 72% YoY
    • Power BI has more than 200k customers
  • Linkedin 
    • 830M professionals
    • Talent solutions up 43% marking 6 consecutive quarter of accelerating growth
    • 28M subscribers to atleast 1 newsletter, up 51% YoY
  • Teams
    • differentiation : only solution with meetings, chat, video, collaboration and business process automation
    • 1000+ collaboration apps like asana and zendesk
    • Teams is a platform and companies have built custom apps on teams to bring business processes into workflows
    • Viva has more than 10M MAUs
    • Linkedin's glint employee engagement tool also got added to viva
  • Windows
    • More than 100M PCs have shipped in each of the last 8 quarters
    • Windows 11 and windows 365 enabling switch between cloud and local PC
    • 500M MAU of Microsoft personalized content feed - Microsoft start
    • Flywheel : content consumption and commerce, microsoft edge helping people save through commerce deals
  • Security
    • 24 Trillion threat signals each day
    • Azure active directory has 550M MAUs
    • 785k customers for security solutions, grew 50% YoY
    • 15k partners in security ecosystem
  • Gaming
    • XBox cloud gaming - 10M people have streamed games
    • Azure gaming revenue fiscal grew 66% YTD


Tuesday, April 26, 2022

Google Q1, 2022 Earnings Analysis

Numbers

  • Revenue: $68.1B vs $55.3B in Q1, 2021 (up 26%)
  • Operating Income: $20.1B vs 16.4B in Q1, 2021
  • Net Income - 16.4B vs 17.9B in Q1, 2021
  • Operating margin - 30% vs 30% in Q1, 2021
  • Finished with 134B of cash and purchased $52B of stock in the last 12 months

Segment Breakdown

  • Google search 39.6 vs 31.8B in Q1, 2021 up 24.5%
  • Google Cloud revenue: $5.8 billion vs. 4.0B in Q1 2021 up 43%
  • YouTube ads: $6.8 billion vs. $6.0 billion in Q1 2021 up 14%
  • Traffic Acquisition Costs (TAC): $11.99B billion  vs. $9.7B
  • Google Network 8.1B vs 6.8B in Q1, 2021 up 20%
  • Google Other(hardware, playstore, non-advertising youtube revenues) 6.8B (6.4B in Q1 2021) up 5%

Operating Income breakdown

  • Google Service - 22.9B
  • Cloud lost 930M in Q4. Prediction is that in 2022 Cloud will be cash flow positive
  • Other bets lost 1.1B
  • Google ends the quarter with 139B in cash
  • Stock split 1:20 coming soon
  • 70B new buyback announced
Search
  • Multisearch - people can search using both images and text
  • Search to help people find health care providers who take their insurance and book appointments online.

  • Retail was the largest contributor for YoY growth to the ads business followed by travel


Youtube
  • 2B monthly signed in users
  • Short form videos : 30B daily viewing hours, 4x in the last year

  • Current focus is on user experience and monetization will follow later

  • Youtube usage has continued to grow despite return to physical world post covid

  • 135M people were reached via youtube on connected TVs

  • Youtube made the transition from mobile to TV, over 700M hours of content watched on TV daily

  • YouTube accounts for over 50% of ad-supported streaming watch time on connected TVs among people ages 18 and up. And over 35% of viewers in this group can't be reached by any other ad-supported streaming service. In other words, we're seeing that when users choose to watch ad-supported CTV, they choose to watch YouTube, and YouTube delivers CTV audiences that advertisers can reach anywhere else.

  • later this year, in partnership with Nielsen, we'll help brands directly compare their YouTube reach to linear TV, including the ability to measure co-viewing. This apples-to-apples comparison will be a game changer in helping advertisers make smarter investment decisions.

  • Warner Bros., who leaned to YouTube to help drive awareness among key audiences for The Batman. By using a combination of best-performing video creative, connected TV media and video ad sequencing, Warner Bros. expanded its target audience in the 2 weeks leading up to its release, helping contribute to its successful $134 million opening weekend.

  • For direct response, we continue to believe there's great opportunity to address commercial intent on YouTube between video action campaigns, app campaigns, product feeds and new live commerce features.

Google play
  • 99% developers pay less than 15%
  • Pixel 6 is the fastest growing Pixel in the portfolio
Cloud
  • Q1 revenue grew 44%
Google maps
  • Google maps searches for shops near me grew 100% YoY
  • Omnichannel is still a winning strategy
Other bets
  • Waymo launched driverless operations in San Francisco expanding from Phoenix
  • Wing started drone deliveries in Dallas Fortworth area completing 50k orders and growing 3x
ARBeauty
  • Shoppers can now virtually discover and try on thousands of products from 90-plus brands, including Maybelline New York, MAC and Charlotte Tilbury as well as from retailers like Ulta Beauty right in Google Search.



Buybacks:
2022 : $70B
2021 : $50B
2019 : $25B

$GOOG Q1 revenue:


2022: $68.0 billion

2021: $55.3 billion

2020: $41.2 billion

2019: $36.3 billion

2018: $31.1 billion

2017: $24.8 billion

2016: $20.3 billion

2015: $17.3 billion

2014: $15.4 billion

2013: $12.9 billion

2012: $10.6 billion

2011: $8.6 billion

2010: $6.8 billion

 

Sunday, February 27, 2022

ESPP

Employee Stock Purchase Plans are, like much in the stock-related world, a double-edged sword. Depending on how you swing them, they can either be a handy supplement to your paycheck or just another source of complexity and, in the worst case, a way to flush income down the drain. As many of my fellow geeks have access to them — though not as many as a decade ago — I’d like to take some time to talk about them. Even if you’re already familiar with ESPP’s, it’s a good idea to know what’s out there — not every company’s plan works the same as yours, and it’s handy to know what the possibilities are when you’re job-hunting!

The idea behind the ESPP is relatively simple: as part of the benefits your employer is showering upon you — like manna from the heavens — you are given the opportunity to buy their stock at a discount. Nothing in the world of employer benefits is ever that simple, of course, so I’ll walk through the caveats.

The money for purchasing this stock is withheld from your paycheck. In this way, ESPP’s are much like 401(k)’s: you allocate a certain amount of your paycheck to be withheld, and that amount never graces your bank accounts. Also, there are heavy restrictions on when you can change that allocation; generally you can jump out if you like, but you can’t jump back in until the beginning of the next ESPP period.

The stock is often (not always) purchased in one chunk, at the end of the ESPP period. In this case, rather than buying stock each time you get a paycheck, it’s all purchased at the end of an ESPP period (generally 3 or 6 months). You can expect to see fun little jumps in your employer’s stock price on that day, as some/many/most employees (depending on the company) turn around and sell their newfound shares (and speculators buy or sell in response to this).

There is a cap on how much you can purchase. The cap can be either a maximum percentage of your paycheck, or a maximum number of shares bought, or both.

The discount varies greatly with the employer. Most common is a range from 5%-15%; alternately, the company may “match” your contributions to the ESPP up to a certain percentage of your income. Also, the discounted price is not always the fair market value on the day the stock is bought; it could be the lower of that price and the price at the beginning of the period, or even the price at the beginning of a window of periods! For example: say your employer’s stock price was $10 when you joined a year ago, $20 at the beginning of the last period, and $30 today, the end of the latest ESPP period. Depending on your employer, the buy price could be 5%/10%/15% of $30, $20, or even $10!

Depending on the company, it may not be a guaranteed win. In most cases, if you sell immediately you’ll lock in your profit and get a nice bonus. However, if you work for a company with a highly-volatile stock price (e.g. a “microcap”), you can lose your discount (and more!) by the time you sell your stock.

Let’s start with the basic diagram below. At this level, the tax situation is rather simple: the difference between the price at which you bought the stock and the price at which you sold it is income, and thus is taxed.


Sounds simple, right? Well, the trick is how it is taxed. There are three options:

Compensation (ordinary income): Part of your ESPP income is taxed as compensation, i.e. at your normal income tax rate.

Short-term Capital Gains: If you held your shares for a year or less after you purchased them, the part of your ESPP income not taxed as compensation is taxed as short-term capital gains. Currently, that means they’re taxed at the same rate as compensation.

Long-term Capital Gains: If you held your shares for more than a year after you purchased them, the part of your ESPP income not taxed as compensation is taxed as long-term capital gains. As of September 2017, that means they’re taxed at 20%, 15% or 0%, depending on your income.

OK, that doesn’t sound so bad. So that means that all we have to do is figure out how much of the income is compensation, and we’re home free, right? Well, yes…and that’s the tricky part. There are two situations we need to go into: “disqualifying dispositions” and “qualifying dispositions”.

Disqualifying Dispositions: If you did not hold your shares for more than two years after the “grant date” (beginning of the offering window; see previous post) and more than one year after purchasing them, this is a “disqualifying disposition”. In a disqualifying disposition, the difference between the amount you paid for the shares and the amount they were worth when you bought them — in other words, your discount — is counted as compensation income. The rest — the difference between the amount the shares were worth when you bought them and the amount they were worth when you sold them — is capital gains; long-term if you held the shares for more than a year after purchasing them, short-term otherwise.


Sounds relatively straightforward, but what if your stock drops after you buy it? Well, the sad fact is that it the discount still counts as compensation income, even though you didn’t see a red cent of it! To be sure, the capital losses offset your income — but only up to $3,000. (The rest must be carried over to future years.)


Qualifying Dispositions: If you held your shares for more than two years after the grant date and more than one year after purchasing them, this is a “qualifying disposition”. In a qualifying disposition, your compensation income is equal to the difference between what you paid for the shares and what you sold them for or the discount (difference between what you would have paid for the shares and what they were worth) on the grant date, whichever is lower. The rest is long-term capital gains since, by definition, you held the shares for longer than one year. So an ideal situation would look like this:


That’s good — more of your income is taxed at the (lower) long-term capital gains rate. But here’s a bizarre twist: in the following situation, you would actually pay more in taxes for a qualifying disposition than for a disqualifying disposition!


Note that if this were a disqualifying disposition, your compensation income would be much smaller (look back at the second graph), and the capital gains much larger. Ouch — good things do not, apparently, always come to those who wait!

And that’s how ESPP taxes work. You’ll remember that forever, right? Well, if perchance you think something more important might displace its spot in your memory, feel free to bookmark this article and refer back to it later. (Heck, I’ll probably end up doing that myself!)


Reference

1. https://financialgeekery.com/2012/05/15/the-ins-and-outs-of-espps-part-2-fun-with-taxes/ 

Friday, February 18, 2022

Getting Things Done by David Allen : Book summary

 

The Book in Three Sentences

  1. If we don’t appropriately manage the ‘open loops’ in our life, our attention will get pulled.
  2. Overwhelm comes from not clarifying what your intended outcome is, not deciding what the very next action is, and not reminding yourself of your intended outcome and action.
  3. You need to transform all the ‘stuff’ you attract and accumulate into a clear inventory of meaningful actions, projects, and usable information.

The Five Big Ideas

  1. Getting things done requires defining what “done” means and what “doing” looks like.
  2. Mastering your workflow involves capturing what has your attention, clarifying what it means, putting it where it belongs, reviewing it frequently, and engaging with it.
  3. If an action will take less than two minutes, it should be done at the moment it is defined.
  4. Anxiety and guilt don’t come from having too much to do; it comes from breaking agreements with yourself.
  5. Your mind is for having ideas, not for holding them.

Getting Things Done Summary

  • A basic truism Allen has discovered over decades of coaching and training thousands of people is that most stress people experience comes from inappropriately managed commitments they make or accept
  • “Anything that does not belong where it is, the way it is, is an ‘open loop,’ which will be pulling on your attention if it’s not appropriately managed.”
  • “You must use your mind to get things off your mind.”
  • “Most often, the reason something is on your mind is that you want it to be different than it currently is, and yet: you haven’t clarified exactly what the intended outcome is; you haven’t decided what the very next physical action step is; and/or you haven’t put reminders of the outcome and the action required in a system you trust.”
  • Until your thoughts have been clarified and decisions have been made, and the resulting data has been stored in a system that you absolutely know you will access and think about when you need to, your brain can’t give up the job.
  • “It’s a waste of time and energy to keep thinking about something that you make no progress on.”
  • We need to transform all the ‘stuff’ we attract and accumulate into a clear inventory of meaningful actions, projects, and usable information.

Getting things done requires two basic components:

  1. Outcome. Defining what “done” means
  2. Action. What “doing” looks like

You need to control commitments, projects, and actions in two ways:

  1. Horizontally. Maintaining coherence across all the activities in which you are involved
  2. Vertically. Managing thinking, development, and coordination of individual topics and projects.
  • “The goal for managing horizontally and vertically is the same: to get things off your mind and get them done.”
  • “There is usually an inverse relationship between how much something is on your mind and how much it’s getting done.”
  • “There is no reason to ever have the same thought twice unless you like having that thought.”

The Five Steps of Mastering Workflow

  1. Capture. Collect what has your attention
  2. Clarify. Process what it means
  3. Organize. Put it where it belongs
  4. Reflect. Review frequently
  5. Engage. Simply do.

The Three Requirements to Make the Capturing Phase Work

  1. Every open loop must be in your capture system and out of your head
  2. You must have as few capturing buckets as you can get by with
  3. You must empty them regularly

Getting Things Done Workflow Chart


When you’re processing an item, ask yourself, “What is it?” and, “Is it actionable?”

If it is not actionable, there are three possibilities:

  1. Trash. It’s  no longer needed.
  2. Incubate. No action is needed now, but something might need to be done later.
  3. Reference. The item is potentially useful information that might be needed for something later.

If it is actionable, you have three options:

  1. Do it. If an action will take less than two minutes, it should be done at the moment it is defined.
  2. Delegate it. If the action will take longer than two minutes, ask yourself, “Am I the right person to do this?” If the answer is no, delegate it to the appropriate entity.
  3. Defer it. If the action will take longer than two minutes, and you are the right person to do it, you will have to defer acting on it until later and track it on one or more “Next Actions” lists.
  • “Being organized means simply that where something is matches what it means to you.”
  • Allen defines a project as any desired result that can be accomplished within a year that requires more than one action step.

Reminders of actions you need to take fall into two categories:

  1. Those about things that have to happen on a specific day or time
  2. Those about things that just need to get done as soon as possible.

There are three things go on your calendar:

  1. Time-specific actions. This is a fancy name for appointments.
  2. Day-specific actions. These are things that you need to do sometimes on a certain day, but not necessarily at a specific time.
  3. Day-specific information. The calendar is also the place to keep track of things you want to know about on specific days—not necessarily actions you’ll have to take but rather information that may be useful on a certain date.
  • “It’s useful to have a calendar on which you can note both time-specific and day-specific actions.”
  • “Next Actions lists, which, along with the calendar, are at the heart of daily action-management organization and orientation.”

No-action systems fall into three categories:

  1. Trash. This is self-evident.
  2. Incubation. These are things that require no immediate action but are worth keeping. There are two kinds of incubation tools (i) Someday/Maybe lists and (ii) a tickler system. Someday/Maybe items are of the nature of “projects I might want to do, but not now … but I’d like to be reminded of them regularly.” A tickler system is for items that you don’t want or need to be reminded of until some designated time in the future.
  3. Reference. Reference systems generally take two forms: (1) topic- and area-specific storage, and (2) general reference files. The first types usually define themselves in terms of how they are stored. The second type of reference system is one that everyone needs close at hand for storing ad hoc information that doesn’t belong in some predesigned larger category.
  • “All of your Projects, active project plans, and Next Actions, Agendas, Waiting For, and even Someday/Maybe lists should be reviewed once a week.”

The Weekly Review is the time to:

  1. Gather and process all your stuff
  2. Review your system
  3. Update your lists
  4. Get clean, clear, current, and complete.

The Four-Criteria Model for Choosing Actions in the Moment

  1. Context
  2. Time Available
  3. Energy Available
  4. Priority

The Threefold Model for Identifying Daily Work

When you’re getting things done, or “working” in the universal sense, there are three different kinds of activities you can be engaged in:

  1. Doing predefined work. When you’re doing predefined work, you’re working from your Next Actions lists and calendar—completing tasks that you have previously determined need to be done, or managing your workflow.
  2. Doing work as it shows up. Every day brings surprises and you’ll need to expend some time and energy on many of them. However, when you follow these leads, you’re deciding by default that these things are more important than anything else you have to do at those times.
  3. Defining your work. Defining your work entails clearing up your in-tray, your digital messages, and your meeting notes, and breaking down new projects into actionable steps.

The Six-Level Model for Reviewing Your Own Work

  1. Horizon 5: Purpose and principles
  2. Horizon 4: Vision
  3. Horizon 3: Goals
  4. Horizon 2: Areas of focus and accountabilities
  5. Horizon 1: Current projects 
  6. Ground: Current Actions. This is the accumulated list of all the actions you need to take.
  7. Horizon 1: Current Projects. These are the relatively short-term outcomes you want to achieve (e.g. organizing a sales conference).
  8. Horizon 2: Areas of Focus and Accountabilities. These are the key areas of your life and work within which you want to achieve results and maintain standards.
  9. Horizon 3: Goals. These are thing you’d like to accomplish or have in place, which could add importance to certain aspects of your life and diminish others.
  10. Horizon 4: Vision. What do you what your life and work to look like in three to five years? Decisions at this altitude can easily change what your work might look like on many levels.
  11. Horizon 5: Purpose and Principles. This is the big-picture view.

The key ingredients of relaxed control are:

  1. Clearly defined outcomes (projects) and the next actions required to move them toward closure
  2. Reminders placed in a trusted system that is reviewed regularly.
  • “If you’re waiting to have a good idea before you have any ideas, you won’t have many.”
  • “Often the only way to make a hard decision is to come back to the purpose of what you’re doing.”
  • “If you’re not sure why you’re doing something, you can never do enough of it.”
  • “One of the most powerful life skills and one of the most important to hone and develop for both professional and personal success is creating clear outcomes.”
  • “If a project is still on your mind, there’s more thinking required.”
  • “The big secret to efficient creative and productive thinking and action is to put the right things in your focus at the right time.”
  • “One of the best tricks for enhancing your productivity is having organizing tools you love to use.”
  • “Until you’ve captured everything that has your attention, some part of you will still not totally trust that you’re working with the whole picture of your world.”
  • “You can only feel good about what you’re not doing when you know everything you’re not doing.”

Here are the four categories of things that can remain where they are, the way they are, with no action tied to them:

  1. Supplies
  2. Reference Material
  3. Decoration
  4. Equipment

Processing Guidelines

  1. Process the top item first
  2. Process one item at a time
  3. Never put anything back into “in.”

The in-tray is a processing station, not a storage bin. There will be three types of item in it:

  1. Trash
  2. Items to incubate
  3. Reference material
  • “It’s fine to decide not to decide about something. You just need a decide-not-to-decide system to get it off your mind.”

There are seven primary types of things that you’ll want to keep track of and manage from an organizational and operational perspective:

  1. A Projects list
  2. Project support material
  3. Calendar actions and information
  4. Next Actions lists
  5. A Waiting For list
  6. Reference material
  7. A Someday/Maybe list
  • “The primary reason for organizing is to reduce cognitive load—i.e. to eliminate the need to constantly be thinking, ‘What do I need to do about this?’”
  • “Checklists can be highly useful to let you know what you don’t need to be concerned about.”

Allen on The Weekly Review:

[It] is whatever you need to do to get your head empty again and get oriented for the next couple of weeks. It’s going through the steps of workflow management—capturing, clarifying, organizing, and reviewing all your outstanding commitments, intentions, and inclinations—until you can honestly say, “I absolutely know right now everything I’m not doing but could be doing if I decided to.”

  • “Your best thoughts about work won’t happen while you’re at work.”
  • “The world itself is never overwhelmed or confused—only we are, due to how we are engaged with it.”
  • Allen recommends to always keep an inventory of things that need to be done that require very little mental or creative horsepower.
  • “One of the best ways to increase your energy is to close some of your loops.”
  • “It is impossible to feel good about your choices unless you are clear about what your work really is.”
  • “There are no interruptions—there are only mismanaged inputs.”
  • “Do unexpected work as it shows up, not because it is the path of least resistance, but because it is the thing you need to do vis-à-vis all the rest.”
  • “Handle what has your attention and you’ll then discover what really has your attention.”
  • Allen believes the most important thing to deal with is whatever is most on your mind.
  • “If you’re not totally sure what your job is, it will always feel overwhelming.”
  • “When you’re not sure where you’re going or what’s really important to you, you’ll never know enough.”

There are two types of projects, however, that deserve at least some sort of planning activity:

  1. Those that still have your attention even after you’ve determined their next actions
  2. Those about which potentially useful ideas and supportive detail just show up ad hoc.
  • “One of the greatest blocks to organizational (and family) productivity is the lack of someone about the need for a meeting, and with whom, to move something forward.”
  • “The sense of anxiety and guilt doesn’t come from having too much to do; it’s the automatic result of breaking agreements with yourself.”
  • “Negative feelings are simply the result of breaking those agreements—they’re the symptoms of disintegrated self-trust.”
  • “Maintaining an objective and complete inventory of your work, regularly reviewed, makes it much easier to say no with integrity.”
  • “When a culture adopts ‘What’s the next action?’ as a standard operating query, there’s an increase in energy, productivity, clarity, and focus.”
  • “Defining what real doing looks like on the most basic level and organizing placeholder reminders that we can trust are master keys to productivity enhancement and creating a relaxed inner environment.”
  • “Without a next action, there remains a potentially infinite gap between current reality need to do.”
  • “Avoiding action decisions until the pressure of the last minute creates huge inefficiencies and unnecessary stress.”
  • “Defining specific projects and next actions that address real quality-of-life issues is productivity at its best.”
  • “Your mind is for having ideas, not for holding them.”
  • “You can only put your conscious attention on one thing at a time.”
  • “Providing yourself the right cues, which you will notice at the right time, about the right things, is a core practice of stress-free productivity.”

Books I am reading