Friday, April 30, 2021

Apple Q1 2021 Earnings

 Summary

  • Revenue up 54 percent to new March quarter record
  • Net income of $23.6 billion, diluted earnings per share of $1.40 and operating cash flow of $24 billion were all March quarter records by a wide margin.
  • Services and Mac revenue reach new all-time high
  • International sales accounted for 67 percent of the quarter’s revenue.
  • If you look at how the iPhone did around the world, we had the top five models of smartphone in the US, the top selling, the top two in urban China, four out of the top five in Japan, the top four in the UK and the top six in Australia. 
  • Trends playing into Mac : Work from home, M1 chips, remote learning, last 3 quarters for Macs have been the best 3 quarters ever
  • Trends playing into iPad : Work from home, M1 chips, remote learning
  • Watch : 75% people who bought an Apple watch were new to the product
  • Q2 guidance being lower - we reached supply demand balance only during the March quarter, which makes obviously the sequential decline steeper than usual. this 3 or $4 billion of supply constraints that Tim just said, primarily on iPad and Mac.
  • my view would be as the stores get back up to speed, fully up to speed, we should be able to increase some of the accessory sales. Although I think we're doing fairly well at the moment. So it's not something that we're not doing well. Online has been much more beneficial and much more productive than we would have guessed going into this.
  • Keep in mind that our Europe segment is a very broad version of Europe because it includes Western Europe, which has done very, very well. And then, Eastern Europe and it goes into the Middle East. Even India is part of Europe. And those emerging markets have done incredibly well, significantly better than company average.
  • Apple Pay continues to expand geographically, launching in Mexico and in South Africa, bringing our payment service to six continents.
  • In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business.
    Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds. Openreach in the UK has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large healthcare provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from three minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.

  • Net cash was 83 billion at the end of the quarter.


Category Breakdown

  • iPhone - 47.9 B vs 28.9 B in Q1, 2020 (up 65%)
  • Mac - 9.1 B vs 5.3 B in Q1, 2020 (up 71%)
  • iPad - 7.8 B vs 4.3 B in Q1, 2020 (up 81%)
  • Wearbales - 7.8 B vs 6.2 B in Q1, 2020 (up 25%)
  • Services - 16.9 B vs 13.3 B in Q1, 2020 (up 27%)
  • Revenue - 89.5 B vs 58.3 B in Q1, 2020 (up 54%)
  • Net income - 52 B (~60% operating margin) 

Geography Breakdown

  • Americas 34.3 B vs 25.4 B in Q1, 2020
  • Europe 25.2 B vs 14.2 B in Q1, 2020
  • China 17.7 B vs 9.4 B in Q1, 2020
  • Japan 7.7 B vs 5.2 B in Q1, 2020
  • APAC 7.7 B vs 3.8 B in Q1, 2020

Historical Apple revenue in Q2:


2021: $89.6 billion

2020: $58.3 billion

2019: $58.0 billion

2018: $61.1 billion

2017: $52.9 billion

2016: $50.6 billion

2015: $58.0 billion

2014: $45.7 billion

2013: $43.6 billion

2012: $39.2 billion

2011: $24.7 billion

2010: $13.5 billion

2009: $9.1 billion


Thesis

  • Trends : remote learning, creator economy
  • Competitive advantage : m1 chip driving adoption
  • Geography : Strength in international markets


Tuesday, April 27, 2021

Decision Making


 

Google Q1 2021 Earnings

Numbers

  • Revenue: $55.31B (exp $51.61B)
  • EPS: $26.29 (exp $15.64)
  • Operating Income: $16.44B (exp $12.02B) 
  • Net Income - 17.9B
  • Approved Buyback Of Additional $50B Class C Stock
  • Google has 3 businesses growing at greater than 45% run rate and revenue of 4 bn a quarter
  • Alphabet structure is a scam, the goal is to burn some money to lower operating margin to reduce antitrust scrutiny
Segment Breakdown
  • Google search 31B vs 24.5B in Q1, 2020
  • Google Cloud revenue: $4.05 billion vs. $4.07 billion, according to FactSet estimates(2.7B in Q1 2020) up 48%
  • YouTube ads: $6.01 billion vs. $5.70 billion, according to StreetAccount (4B in Q1 2020) up 50%
  • Traffic Acquisition Costs (TAC): $9.71 billion  vs. $9.25
  • Google Network 6.8B
  • Google Other(hardware, playstore, non-advertising youtube revenues) 6.4B (4.4B in Q1 2020) up 45%
Operating Income breakdown
  • Google Service - 19.5B
  • Cloud lost 900M in Q1. Prediction is that in 2021 Cloud will be cash flow positive
  • Other bets lost 1.1B
  • Google ends the quarter with 135B in cash
Highlights and Opinions from earnings call
  • 100M searches for COVID and related health information
    • Retail, tech and CPG
    • Helping American airlines predict traffic on untapped routes
    • Searches for local and businesses are up 80% - accelerated curbside pickup
    • Omnichannel fulfillment approach using search and maps
    • Job seekers looking for jobs, top employment websites
    • What are the key drivers you are thinking of driving search growth ?
      • Queries - are you point place for customers to turn to when they need information
      • Ads Coverage - what percentage of the queries are commercial
      • Click through rates - next generation machine learning
      • CPC - quality of traffic, conversion rates, ROI - work closely with partners
  • Maps - indoor live view, navigate airports, malls and stations using AR
  • Google news showcase - 1 bn investment - UK, Italy, Argentina, Australia
  • Youtube 
    • educational videos - 77% respondents used for learning new skills
    • Youtube shorts 6.5 daily views as of march 
    • Brand and performance goals. Advertisers are using youtube to reach people they cant find anywhere else, awareness to consideration to action. More people here than all of TV.
    • Direct response, make it easier for people to buy. Purchases from creators directly from youtube. Product feeds can be directly brought on the video ads. 
    • 2B monthly logged in users and 2B hours per day
    • Violative view rate 1.6% down 70% from 2017
  • Other revenues : Google play > Youtube > Hardware
  • Chrome OS - 10 years - Chromebook fighting for K-12 education
  • Signing multi-year multi-product partnerships through Cloud
    • Univision, T-Mobile
    • Very strong customer momentum in data cloud - Twitter
    • AI/ML - Financial services, fraud and risk - HSBC
    • Bigquery - business intelligence cloud
    • Operational efficiency - migrating data center to Google Cloud
    • Google workspace - nurses and retail store workers
  • Waymo - 100 rides per week in Phoenix
  • Calico - clinical stage programs for Cancer
  • 7B investment in 2021 in US alone
2021 themes
  • Building and providing useful services
  • Quality of information, privacy and safety
  • Strong Execution 
  • Building sustainable value - Long term growth with financially sustainable businesses
Putting the Q1 numbers into historical perspective
Google's revenue in Q1 - this is a 34% jump in quarterly numbers
2021: $55.3 billion
2020: $41.2 billion
2019: $36.3 billion
2018: $31.1 billion
2017: $24.8 billion
2016: $20.3 billion
2015: $17.3 billion
2014: $15.4 billion
2013: $12.9 billion
2012: $10.6 billion
2011: $8.6 billion
2010: $6.8 billion
2009: $5.5 billion







Books I am reading