A lot has been said about Mark Zuckerberg's $10B/year investment in Oculus. Currently there is fear in the market's with $FB stock ~35% below peak hovering at $220. The goal of this thread is to review the current state of Oculus :
Revenue 📈
- More than $1 billion has been spent in the Quest Store since its launch in 2019.
- Total revenue 501M (2019) -> 1.1B (2020) -> 2.2B (2021)
- Revenue doubling every year (2024 approx rev target:10B)
Marketplace Dynamics
Lets look at the marketplace dynamics of the metaverse and all the parties involved
- Developers : they bring in content/apps that make the oculus platform engaging and attracts users.
- Users : more users means more money spent on the platform which helps the developers monetize their apps.
- Flywheel : This further attracts future developers to build more apps/content for the platform.
- Creators : Businesses and other creators start moving and start selling services on the metaverse which makes it the future towncenter of the internet
- This creates a virtuous cycle of building/spending/consumption on the metaverse
Lets us take a deeper dive into each of these categories to understand where they are currently
Developers
- Beat Saber surpassed $100 million in revenue on Quest alone
- 8 titles have made over $20M in gross revenue
- 14 titles > $10M
- 17 titles > $5M
- More than 120 titles have generated revenue in the millions—that’s 2x more than the figure Oculus shared last year
This clearly shows that the product doesnt have any existential crisis - this is post product market fit with multiple games generating 1 million+ revenue.
Users
- Estimated number of headsets sold based on Qualcomm data : 10 MN
- ARPU : 100$ in the last 2.5 years since Occulus store launch (given 1B Quest store revenue)
- Occulus was top app in the app store on Dec 25th which means that this was a popular gift during the christmas holidays
Comparison to app store
- When Apple launched its iPhone App Store, it took around 21 months to hit $1B in (estimated) revenue.
- In this earnings release we learned that Quest has taken 34 months to reach the same $1B revenue milestone.
Business, creator use cases
- Fitness, meditation, travel use cases have product market fit and good content liquidity
- Foo fighter's concert in VR after the super bowl
- Supernatural launches workouts with new guest coach Chesney Mariany
- Mcdonalds files trademarks for virtual restaurants in the metaverse that will sell virtual and real food
All these use cases align with their mission statement
Our mission is to enable people to have meaningful interactions regardless of physical distance.
Their mission statement clearly opens up a lot of new possibilities with the Oculus headset. Here are some possible use cases that can open up in the future
- Educational
- Science demos
- Animal habitats viewing
- Historical events
- Training
- Medical surgery training
- Fire Rescue training
- Entertainment
- 3D Movies - most of the content production will move towards 3D
- Travel
- Luxury goods
- Users will be able to create their own worlds in the metaverse
Given the 220$ stock price of Meta, you may be getting a free call option on the next computing platform. More on that later.
No comments:
Post a Comment