On the day of this writing, July 26th, India has 14lakh covid cases
Goal
There are several people stuck in foreign countries who are making tradeoffs about flights, timing, travel, medicines. The goal of this post is to help people plan their lives by laying out how the future is looking like from here.
I made one of the earliest predictions of first hundred cases in bay area which helped some people realize what is coming : https://siliconvalleystories.blogspot.com/2020/03/coronavirus-in-bay-area.html
Projections
july - 16 lakhs
aug - 40 lakhs
sept - 1crore
oct - 2-2.5 crore
nov - 4-5 crore
dec - 8-10 crore
Assumptions
- Doubling rate is 20 days
- Testing rate continues to support CFR around 2.5-3%, so India will scale testing as the cases grow
- They dont do renewed country wide lockdowns
No comments:
Post a Comment